Market Insights: April 2025

Markets don't like surprises – but they hate uncertainty even more.

This week’s headlines around new tariffs have created a jolt, triggering the kind of volatility that can test even the most seasoned investors. When fear surges, it’s easy to forget what history shows us time and again: market declines are part of the journey, not the end of the road.

Here’s what we know:

• The fundamentals remain strong. Unemployment is low. Household income is healthy. Inflation is elevated but manageable at 2.5–3%. And importantly, the Federal Reserve still has over 400 basis points of room to stimulate if needed.
• Tariffs were telegraphed. Markets are reacting to the starting point of the tariff discussion, not the outcome. Historically, these kinds of trade policy moves often serve as opening salvos for negotiation.
• Corrections are common. Since 1954, the S&P 500 has declined by 10% or more about every 18 months. It’s declined by 20% or more roughly every six years. But every single one of those declines has been followed by a recovery.

As investors, we must separate noise from signal. This isn’t the time to time the market – it’s the time to trust the plan and lean into opportunity.

Being fearful when others are fearful only guarantees missed rebounds. Consider this: the average return in the first year after a 15%+ decline? 52%. Missing just the 10 best trading days over a decade could cut your gains in half. Trying to time the “perfect” re-entry is far riskier than staying invested.

Our role is to help you navigate through the noise.

If your investment goals haven’t changed, your strategy shouldn’t either. That’s how real wealth is built: not by avoiding downturns, but by preparing for them in advance and staying disciplined when they come.

Let’s continue to take the long view – together.